Senior Living: Opportunities for the Baltics

Europe is ageing rapidly. According to CBRE data, the over-75s will become the fastest-growing age group in the coming decades. Rising life expectancy has fuelled demand for new housing formats, yet “healthy” years do not always match the calendar: on average, people spend about ten years in later life living with limitations that require different approaches to housing and urban design.

Senior housings usually combine private flats with shared spaces to create supportive environments for later life. Unlike traditional nursing homes, these developments are not about isolation but about maintaining active and independent living, with medical care available when required. These residences aim to provide safe, comfortable homes, preserve social connections and ensure access to services ranging from daily support to medical care.

In the UK, the Netherlands and France, the sector has been established for decades. In Central and Eastern Europe, however, it is only beginning to take shape, making it one of the most promising opportunities for investors and developers.

The Baltic context

CBRE’s analysis shows that while demand for senior housing in the Baltics is growing, supply remains extremely limited. In Latvia, the number of places in long-term care homes is declining, and most existing facilities were built before 2000. The need is evident: by 2050, the population aged over 75 will have increased by nearly 50%. In Riga, waiting lists for municipal care are already lengthening, and more than 40% of residents in these facilities live with dementia — requiring specialised housing and accessible healthcare.

The financial picture adds to the challenge. Average pensions in Latvia are around €550, while a place in a private facility can cost over €1,000 per month. Municipalities cover part of the gap, but without new funding models the market remains constrained. For developers, this is both a challenge and an opportunity: mid-market formats, flexible payment options and public-private partnerships could open the way for a new market.

Climate factor: The Baltics as the “New Portugal”?

For decades, pensioners from Northern Europe have chosen Portugal or Spain for retirement, drawn by mild weather, relatively affordable living costs and strong healthcare systems. Climate forecasts, however, are beginning to change this picture.

By 2080, summers on the Iberian Peninsula are expected to become significantly hotter, with a greater risk of extreme temperatures. The Baltics, by contrast, are projected to see more moderate shifts: average summer temperatures could rise by 5–6 degrees, and winters by 6–7. This would make the region warmer and more comfortable, while still preserving a seasonal balance.

Combined with relatively low living costs and steadily improving healthcare standards, the Baltic states could emerge as an alternative to southern Europe’s traditional “retirement resorts”. For Latvia especially, this presents a strategic opportunity: to develop senior housing not only for its own ageing population but also for the international market.

For architects and developers, this is a chance to combine a social mission with a sustainable business model. Senior housing formats allow experimentation with scale, typologies and community spaces, while addressing one of the most important challenges of the future — creating environments for an ageing population.

A key factor in developing the sector is state support. In Western Europe, subsidies, tax incentives and partnership schemes have underpinned the market’s growth. For the Baltics, similar measures may prove decisive in establishing a sustainable business environment.

At the same time, modern senior housing projects fulfil a wider social role: they reduce isolation among older people and create new hubs of activity in cities. Their significance extends beyond economics, shaping the very structure of urban life.

Housing for senior people does not have to remain a peripheral institution: it can become an integral part of cities. Compact neighbourhoods, flexible support systems, thoughtful design and seamless integration into the urban fabric can help create a new market and a fresh perspective on later life.

For developers, this represents a rare alignment: social necessity meets business opportunity. The combination of affordability, quality and social value has the potential to establish an entirely new market. For architects, it is a chance to design spaces where ageing is not viewed as withdrawal, but as a continuation of urban life.